糖心传媒

There are management lessons to be taken from America鈥檚 mismanagement of its security and defense preparedness that rumbled through three decades of wrong turns that have led to its current precarious situation. Here鈥檚 what I gathered from my research.

US security officials fear that Beijing fully understands America鈥檚 readiness deficiency and may exploit it by attacking or blockading Taiwan within the next few years. They鈥檝e taken note of President Xi Jinping鈥檚 orders to the People鈥檚 Liberation Army (PLA) to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027 (or thereabouts), despite his dismay of Russia鈥檚 鈥渧ery poor performance鈥� in Ukraine.

After Taiwan鈥檚 President visited the US and obtained pledges from US authorities to arm Taiwan last April, the PLA rehearsed blockading the island for several days. It then released a statement that it is 鈥渞eady to聽fight鈥� at any time to resolutely smash any form of 鈥楾aiwan independence鈥� and foreign interference attempts.鈥� In recent months, several Chinese聽fighter jets buzzed American military aircraft over the South China Sea (SCS).

Top US defense officials acknowledge valid concerns over the possibility that Beijing may even act against Taiwan sooner than later. A sense of urgency moved President Joe Biden to invoke the emergency Defense Production Act to rebuild and expand the nation鈥檚 domestic hypersonic missile industry, a key area of Chinese advancement that US officials鈥� fear will be used by Beijing to push US ships and bases out of close range in the Asia-Pacific region.

Many critics say it鈥檚 not enough citing that the US is in a 鈥渨indow of maximum danger.鈥� According to them, the US could throw a trillion dollars a year at the defense budget now, but it still won鈥檛 get a meaningful increase in military capabilities in the next five years because it doesn鈥檛 have the industrial base it once had. China and other countries 鈥� not all friendly 鈥� produce and supply what the US used to manufacture.

The US heedlessly ceded shipbuilding, aircraft parts, and circuit boards over to China. America鈥檚 new F-35 fighter jets, for example, contain a magnet component made with an alloy almost exclusively manufactured in China. China dominates tools and metals essential to missiles and munitions production; lithium used in batteries; cobalt, aluminum, and titanium for semiconductors. China industrialized while the US foolishly deindustrialized.

It took decades of delusional thinking by both political parties about turning China into a friendly 鈥渟takeholder鈥� in a peaceful international system. After the Cold War, Washington was lulled into defense doldrums from which it is still not fully awakened. After the Soviet Union disintegrated in 1991, America expected a 鈥減eace dividend.鈥� Russia sought US advice in shifting to a market economy. It was cooperating in eliminating nukes. China was brought into the World Trade Organization, with it naively expecting Beijing to observe the US-dominated rules-based international system, a policy that both Republicans and Democrats supported.

After the Gulf War and the advent of the 鈥渟mart bomb鈥� era in 1991, complacency spread far and wide. In 1993, the US shrank its military-industrial complex that shaped the course of the next 30 years. It precipitated a whole series of consolidations as well as dependence on global supply lines that incorporated China, a possible future adversary. I was surprised during an official visit to Israel in 1995 when a top security official confided that the US was dismissive of Israel鈥檚 analysis that China was America鈥檚 real foe.

Successive administrations pushed industry to globalize, despite export restrictions on defense technology sharing. Defense spending dropped. Unwinding America鈥檚 Cold War defense apparatus went a bridge too far. Its industrial base was reduced to one or two monopoly suppliers for everything from large-scale weapons systems to a whole array of crucial components. More importantly, its liberal democracy allowed easy infiltration and espionage.

So, here we are today after three decades. America鈥檚 weaknesses are being fully exploited by its resurging traditional adversaries 鈥� China, Russia, North Korea, Iran and its terror networks. It failed to detect and deter North Korea鈥檚 nuclear and missile programs; Russia鈥檚 invasion of Ukraine; Iranian-backed terror surprise attacks on Israel; and China鈥檚 creeping, then rapid, takeover of the South China Sea. China鈥檚 been thumbing its nose at America鈥檚 Freedom of Navigation Operations and has, in fact, harassed its planes and ships in taunting defiance.

That explains why, despite the US鈥� declared 鈥渋ron-clad鈥� support for the Philippines, China continues to escalate its coercive 鈥済ray zone鈥� tactics throughout the SCS, especially in our Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), and occupied islands in the Spratlys that we collectively name the West Philippine Sea (WPS). China is aware that the obsolete Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) does not cover gray zone tactics nor asymmetric warfare in its definition of 鈥渁ttack.鈥�

From our national interest and security perspective, this dire situation is truly a cause for alarm, and the raison d鈥檈tre to accelerate military and civil defense preparedness for a scenario that鈥檚 more likely to happen, than not 鈥� a US-China military showdown that I sense both sides want to happen now to exploit what they see as the other side鈥檚 weakness before they get any stronger and more difficult to defeat.

If it doesn鈥檛 occur, which is what everyone in their right senses would want for the sake of humankind, then good for us. I鈥檇 be thankful as a parent and grandparent that my descendants have a chance to help build a long and better future. We would, at the very least, be prepared for other security challenges that may come our way. But if it does happen, preparedness would enable us to mitigate the impacts on our safety, security, and survival.

I maintain that we must still participate in peacebuilding and conflict resolution. But we should also prepare for the worst outcomes that could come our way. The national leadership is now acutely aware of it, and it must harness the whole-of-nation to focus. Situational awareness of lurking dangers; removing all legal and regulatory obstacles in defense procurement and local manufacturing; redesigning Reserve Force Development; updating military and civil defense preparedness; and sanitizing our environment of fifth columnists must be our top of mind.

This article reflects the personal opinion of the author and does not reflect the official stand of the Management Association of the Philippines or MAP.

Rafael 鈥淩affy鈥� M. Alunan III is a former governor of MAP. He was secretary of the Interior and Local Government under President Fidel V. Ramos and is a trustee of the Philippine Council for Foreign Relations.

map@map.org.ph

rmalunan@gmail.com